非一致性水文频率分析中, 为了刻画未来环境变化对水文极值分布函数的影响, 常假定分布函数中的分布参 数随时间或其它因子变化, 这就导致了某一量级洪水在未来发生的可能性每年均不同, 是随时间变化的, 使得现行 水文频率分析框架中熟于理解的重现期/ 设计值概念难于应用。为此, 提出/ 等可靠度0 概念, 即假定在工程的设计 使用寿命期内, 非一致条件下的频率分析结果与平稳条件下的成果应具有相同的水文设计可靠度, 由此可以继续采 用现行水文频率分析框架中的重现期与可靠度的概念探讨非一致条件下频率分析中设计值的估计问题, 并建立了 一致/ 非一致性条件下计算方法的联系, 保证了非一致性条件下水文设计成果与现行工程采用的成果之间的衔接与 协调。

In no n2stat ionary hydrolog ical f requency analysis ( NSH FA) , w ith the purpose of co nsider ing the impact o f environ2 ment chang e o n the character istic o f distr ibution function o f hydro lo gical ex tr eme series, the par ameter of distr ibut ion function is usually r egar ded as the funct ion of time or o ther factor s ( precipitat ion, t em perat ur e, etc. ) , which leads to the fact that the de2 sign value r elated to a g iven return per iod var ies w ith time or o ther dr iving facto rs chang e. That is to say that during t he desig n life per iod, fo r the g iven desig n standard, the cor respo nding desig n v alue obtained by the NSHFA metho d is chang eable, w hich makes it be diff icult t o em ploy the co ncept o f r eturn period and desig n v alue in tr adit ional frequency ana lysis ( T FA) to NSHFA . T her efore, the paper intr oduces the" equiv alent r eliability "method to solve hy drolog ical desig n pro blems under no n2stationary case. The" equiv alent reliability"means that the desig n reliability o f the hy dr aulic engineering is the same bot h in stationary and no n2stationary co ndit ions. Meanwhile, using" equivalent reliability "method can establish the r elationship bet ween NSH FA and TFA, which ensures the coor dinat ion of hydr olo gica l design obtained by NSH FA w ith TFA.