[关键词]
[摘要]
以汉江上游丹江口流域为研究区域, 通过降雨2气象遥相关分析从74 项大气环流因子中筛选出预报因子, 建 立月降雨量与预报因子间的多元线性回归模型, 根据大气环流因子对月降雨量进行预报, 并构建研究区域的 SWAT 模型, 以预报的月降雨量作为模型输入, 实现月径流量的预报。以2012 年逐月降雨及径流为例, 模型对降 雨和径流预报的合格率均约为83%, 预报效果较好。研究表明, 根据降雨量2大气环流因子的统计相关关系预报月 降雨, 并结合水文模型进行径流预报, 对研究区域具有一定的适用性。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In o rder to predict monthly rainfall in Danjiang kou basin of the upper H an River , w e selected predictor s fr om 74 atmos2 pheric circulatio n facto rs by analyzing corr elation o f rainfall and fact ors, and multiple linear reg ression mo del w as established by which the monthly rainfall was predicted. SWAT model of the study area w as built to fo recast the monthly runoff by using monthly rainfall fo recast values as the mo del input. The monthly r ainfall and runo ff of 2012 wer e for ecasted w ith passing r ate bo th wer e abo ut 83 percent. It show s the metho d that monthly r ainfall predict ion based o n t he statist ical co rr elatio n of r ainfall and atmospheric cir culation factor s, and r unoff pr ediction combined w ith hydrolog ical mo del, is applicable to the studied ar ea.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家重点基础研究发展计划( 973 计划, 2010CB9511)