依据水资源系统分析原理,本文建立了一个多层次、多水源、多用户的水资源长系列供需平衡动态调算模型。模型主要由数据管理、供需平衡计算、规划调整、结果统计分析四部分组成。模型主要控制方程包括水量平衡方程、行业水供需平衡方程、边界条件类方程、初始条件以及特殊类方程。模型的调度规则包括了供水调度规则和用水调度规则。与传统供需分析模型相比，该模型具有针对缺水区域进行新增工程能力布设的规划能力。该模型应用于青海省水中长期供求规划中。应用结果表明，该模型实现了青海省水资源供需平衡分析中可供水量、供水保证率、水资源开发程度、供水能力、余缺水量以及新增工程能力规划等一系列指标的计算，为水资源管理部门一个科学的、有效的决策工具。

Based on systematical analysis of water resources, a long series dynamic simulation model of water resources supply-demand balance was developed, which targets at multiple levels, multiple water resources, and multiple users. The model mainly consisted of four parts: data management, supply and demand balance calculation, planning adjustment and statistical analysis of the results. Its control equations included the water balance equation, the water supply and demand balance equation, the boundary condition equation, the initial condition and the special kind of equation. The scheduling rules of the model included the water supply dispatching rule and the water supply dispatching rule. Compared with the traditional supply and demand analysis model, the model had the ability to design new engineering capacity in the area of water shortage. The model was then applied to long-term water supply-demand planning of Qinghai Province. The application results showed that the calculation of a series of indicators achieved by this model in water resource supply-demand balance analysis including available water supply, water supply guarantee rate, development of water resources, water supply capacity, water surplus and deficiency, the automatic planning of newly added project capacity, could be used as a scientific and effective decision-making tool of the water resources management department.

青海省重大科技专项课题(2014-NK-A4-1)、水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301009）