系统动力学基于系统理论，能够将用水子系统和供水子系统纳入到水资源供需系统中，并且可以分析每个子系统中各因素的变化对于整体系统的影响。而系统动力学软件Stella可以通过情景模拟来预测水资源供需的发展趋势。运用系统动力学的方法，结合吐鲁番社会经济发展和生态需水的实际情况，构建了吐鲁番水资源供需系统模型，设定四种不同的情景，仿真模拟了2013年－2030年吐鲁番地区水资源供需变化趋势，进而对该地区水资源供需平衡进行分析。研究结果表明：为实现水资源的优化利用，保证吐鲁番地区的可持续发展，还必须加大水利建设，增加水利投资，进一步实施节水措施，巧妙合理的利用水资源。

System dynamics is based on the system theory. It can incorporate the water use sub-system and water supply sub-system into the water resources supply and demand system, and can be used to analyze the influence of the factors in each subsystem on the overall system. The system dynamics software Stella can predict the development trend of water supply and demand through scenario simulation. Turpan water resources supply and demand system model was constructed using the system dynamics method based on the actual situation of Turpan social economic development and ecological water demand. Four different scenarios were set to simulate the variation trend of water resources supply and demand in Turpan area in 2013-2030. Then analysis was conducted on the balance of water resources supply and demand in the region. Research results showed that in order to achieve optimal use of water resources to ensure sustainable development of Turpan area, we must intensify water conservancy construction, increase investment in water conservancy, further implement water-saving measures, and use water resources smartly and reasonably.

国家自然科学基金（41271168）