为了进一步探讨人类活动对流域径流演变特征的影响，以东南沿海晋江流域为例，基于1960年－2010年逐月径流、降水数据，应用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、差积曲线-秩检验法和小波分析等方法，分析了径流的变化趋势、突变和周期；利用SCRCQ方法定量估算了气候变化和人类活动对石砻水文站年径流及年内分配特征变化的贡献率。结果表明：在跨流域调水和山美水库调蓄等人类活动影响下，石砻水文站年径流上升趋势较不受水库影响的安溪水文站明显，年内径流变化幅度更趋于平稳。径流序列主要存在6～7 a、11～12 a和20～21 a左右三个时间尺度的周期变化，与流域年降水周期变化基本保持一致，但20世纪80年代后石砻站周期变化与流域降水周期变化出现微弱差别。石砻站年径流序列在1982年发生变异，而安溪站年径流序列未发现明显变异；变异期内，以山美水库为主的人类活动对石砻站年径流、年内不均匀系数和集中度变化的贡献率分别为67.17%、84.76%和71.16%。

In order to further explore the impact of human activities on the variation characteristics of runoffs, taking the Jinjiang River Basin in southeast coastal region of China as the study area, this paper studied the variation tendency, abrupt and periodic changes of the runoff, using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, Curve-Rank test, and wavelet analysis method, based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010. The Slop Changing Ratio of Cumulative Quantity method (SCRCQ) was employed to quantitatively assess the contribution of climate change and human activities to the variations of the annual runoff and seasonal distribution characteristics at Shilong hydrological station. The results showed that, under the influences of the inter-basin water diversion project and Shanmei reservoir’s regulation, the increasing tendency of the annual runoff at Shilong station was more prominent than that at Anxi station, which was not influenced by the reservoir; and the monthly runoff variations at Shilong station were more gentle. There were significant periodic variations of the annual and inter-annual runoff series at the three scales of 6-7a, 11-12a and 20-21a. They were basically consistent with the annual and inter-annual precipitation in the basin. However, a slight discrepancy occurred between the periodic runoff variations at Shilong station and periodic precipitation variations in the basin after the 1980s. There was an abrupt change in 1982 in the annual runoff series at Shilong station, but not at Anxi station. During the period of variation, the human activities as mainly represented by Shanmei reservoir contributed to 67.17% of the annual runoff variation, 84.76% of the annual unevenness coefficient variation, and 71.16% of the concentration degree variation at Shilong hydrological station.

福建省高校产学合作科技重大项目 (2015Y4002)