针对现存水2碳耦合模型中存在机理复杂、结构不平衡、不确定性较大、资料需求难以满足等问题, 根据非线性 水文循环模拟理论的/ 从复杂现象中, 寻找简单规律0 的理念, 基于非线性水文循环理论构建具有一定物理机理和精 度的水2碳耦合模拟方法。采用American2Flux 的Duke 站点和白洋淀上游的崇陵试验流域小区的试验数据, 在点 尺度和小区尺度对构建模型的精度加以验证, 结果显示, 基于非线性理论的耦合模型能够更加合理和准确的模拟水 文循环中蒸散发量和土壤含水量的变化过程; 最后采用该模型估算了温室气体排放量对水文循环要素的影响, 在二 氧化碳浓度加倍情景下, 试验小区径流深增加0. 5%; 平均土壤含水量增加1. 2%; 蒸散发量减少4. 9%。综合表明, 构建模型达到了采用简单方法解决复杂问题的效果。

The curr ent w ater2carbo n coupling models hav e sev eral issues such as complex mechanisms, unbalanced structure, lar ge uncer tainty, and difficulty to meet the information needs. Acco rding to the concept of / fr om t he complex phenomena, find a simple rule0 from t he no nlinear hydro log ical cycle simulation theo ry , a no nlinear water2carbon co upling model was dev eloped based on the no nlinear system theor y o f the hydrolog ical cy cle and Jar vis stomata l conductance metho d. The experimental data at the Duke station o f Amer ican2Flux and in the Cho ng ling ex perimental w atershed of the upst ream o f Baiy ang dian w ere used to verify the model accur acy at the po int and wat ershed scales. The r esult s indicat ed that the nonlinear w ater2car bo n coupling mod2 el can simulate the va riations of evapotr anspir ation and so il mo isture reasonably and accur ately . The model w as applied to est i2 mate the effects o f gr eenhouse gas dischar ge level o n the hydro log ical cy cle elements. When the concentr ation of carbon diox ide incr eases, the incr ease o f runoff is 0. 5%, incr ease of averag e so il mo istur e is 1. 2%, w hile decrease o f eva po ratio n is 4. 9%. Over all, the w ater2carbon coupling model achieves a simple solution to solve the complex pr oblems.

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目/ 气候变化对中国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策0 ( 2010C B428406)