通过构建资源环境承载力评价指标体系,运用熵值法对长江经济带资源环境承载力指数值进行测度,并采用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)对长江经济带资源环境承载力时空格局演变过程进行研究。结果表明：2005-2016年长江经济带资源环境承载力总体指数值表现出波动平缓上升趋势,但城市资源环境承载力指数值从东向西大体呈现逐渐递减的趋势,与经济发展水平呈现出一致性的特征。长江经济带资源环境承载力呈现出较为显著的相关性,全局相关性呈现出波动中有不断增大的态势。局部相关性上,除热点区范围分布较为稳定外,次热点区、次冷点区和冷点区变化都较为显著。因此,长江经济带各城市在今后的发展中更应做到自我提高与协同发展,从而推动长江经济带资源环境承载力水平的提高,实现高质量发展。

In this article, by constructing the evaluation Index system of resource and environment carrying capacity, using the entropy method to measure the index value of resources and environment carrying capacity of Yangtze River economic belt, and using the exploratory spatial data analysis method (ESDA) to study the temporal and spatial pattern evolution of resources and environment carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt. The results show that the overall index value of resources and environmental carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt in the 2005-2016 shows a moderate upward trend of fluctuation, but the index value of urban resources and environmental carrying capacity is gradually decreasing from east to west, which was consistent with the level of economic development. The carrying capacity of resources and environment in the Yangtze River economic belt shows a more significant correlation, and the global correlation shows a trend of increasing in fluctuation. On the local correlation, in addition to the hot zone distribution is more stable, the sub-hot zone, sub-cold point area and cold point area change more significant. Therefore, cities in the Yangtze River economic belt should achieve self-improvement and co-development in the future development, so as to promote the improvement of resources and environmental carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt and help achieve high-quality development.

东华理工大学地质资源经济与管理研究中心、资源与环境经济研究中心2017年联合开放(17JJ03)；国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室2017年开放课题(CCA2017.05)；东华理工大学博士科研启动(DHBK2016132)。