为了解在全球变暖的背景下海河流域对气候极端事件的响应，基于海河流域1961-2016年气温与降水数据，使用RClimDex模型、MK趋势检验、max-stable模型对海河流域气候极值进行建模分析，研究海河流域气温极值、降水极值不同重现期的时空分布、变化特征。结果表明：海河流域温度极值TXx在空间上表现出从北向南递减趋势，值域为30-40℃，其中36-40℃占大部分地区。TXx在南方呈降低趋势，北方呈上升趋势。降水极值RX1day空间上表现出从东南向西北方向递减的趋势，值域为50-100mm，其中60-90mm占据绝大部分区域。RX1day整体呈下降趋势，其中渤海地区RX1day下降趋势最大。海河流域GEV模型拟合结果表明，海河流域气温极值主要受纬度、海拔影响，随纬度、海拔增加而降低，其变化波动为北方强于南方。降水极值RX1day受海拔和经度影响较大，主要表现为随海拔增大而下降的空间分布，其次表现为随经度变化由西向东递增的空间分布，其变化波动随海拔升高而降低。通过Q-Q百分位图、非参数极值系数θ、GEV与max-stable参数和重现期强度散点图判定系数R2，确定max-stable模型可以很好地模拟海河流域气候极值，达到GEV模型同等效果。气候极值TXx与RX1day主要受到纬度、经度和海拔的影响，但距海岸距离的加入仅可以优化TXx模型的建立。2、10、50、100年一遇气温极值TXx的空间分布均表现为自东北向西南递增的分布模式，高值区均分布于西南大部一带，最高温度达40-44℃。2、10、50、100年一遇降水极值TX1day的空间分布主要受纬度影响，其次受经度和海拔的影响，均表现为从西南偏中向北方递减，高值区分布在西南偏中一带，最大降水量达80-200mm。

To understand the response of haihe river basin to climate extremes in the context of global warming, based on the temperature and precipitation data of haihe river basin from 1961 to 2016, using the RClimDex model, M-K trend test and max-stable model, the climatic extremum of haihe river basin was modeled and analyzed, the spatial and temporal distribution and variation characteristics of temperature extremum and precipitation extremum in haihe river basin were studied. The results show that 1) Temperature extreme value TXx in haihe river basin shows a decreasing trend from north to south in space, with a range of 30-40℃, of which 36-40℃ accounts for most areas. TXx is decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The precipitation extreme value RX1day space shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, with a range of 50-100mm, of which 60-90mm occupies most areas. The overall RX1day showed a downward trend, among which the Circum-Bohai Sea Region had the largest downward trend. 2) The GEV model fitting results of haihe river basin show that the temperature extremes in haihe river basin are mainly affected by latitude and elevation, and decrease with the increase of latitude and elevation, and the variation fluctuation is stronger in the north than in the south. The precipitation extreme value RX1day is greatly affected by altitude and longitude, which is mainly manifested as the spatial distribution decreasing with the increase of altitude, followed by the spatial distribution increasing from west to east with the change of longitude, and its fluctuation decreases with the increase of altitude. 3) Through Q-Q percentile figure coefficient of nonparametric extremum theta GEV and Max - stable parameters and return period strength scatterplot determination coefficient R2, determine the Max - stable model can well simulate the haihe river basin extreme climate, climate extreme TXx GEV model equivalent effect with RX1day mainly influenced by latitude, longitude and altitude, but the distance from the shore to join can only establish a model of optimizing TXx 2, 10, 50, 100 by a temperature extremum TXx spatial distribution are characterized by increasing from northeast to southwest, on the distribution patterns of high value area partitioning throughout most of southwest region, the highest temperature of 40-44℃ once every 2, 10, 50, 100 precipitation extreme TX1day spatial distribution is mainly affected by latitude, secondly is affected by longitude and altitude, are characterized by from partial in the southwest, north high value area distributed in southwest area, the largest rainfall of up to 80-200 mm.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）