基于神经网络模型的全国用水量“四维”模拟研究
Four-dimensional Simulation Research of National Water Consumption based on Neural Network Model
投稿时间:2019-03-29  修订日期:2019-06-04
DOI:
中文关键词:  用水量  神经网络模型  土地利用  人口  经济  时间序列
英文关键词:Water consumption  Neural network model  Land use  Population  Economy  Time series
基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401308,2018YFC0406502);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779007, 41671018)
作者单位E-mail
徐伟铭 北京师范大学水科学研究院 数字流域实验室 18601056026@163.com 
鱼京善 北京师范大学水科学研究院 数字流域实验室 jingshan@bnu.edu.cn 
王 崴 北京师范大学水科学研究院 数字流域实验室
水利部综合事业局 
 
蒋卫威 北京师范大学水科学研究院 数字流域实验室  
摘要点击次数: 72
全文下载次数: 0
中文摘要:
      通过分析影响我国用水数据的因素,模拟我国各地级行政区的用水量数据,对于在全国开展用水情况评价、水资源高效利用与管理、实现经济可持续发展有重要意义。本文以2000-2010年全国地级行政区内土地利用分布、人口、经济和用水量统计数据为基础,采用两层前馈神经网络模型模拟用水量数据。研究结果表明土地利用分布、人口和经济三类影响因素综合模拟用水量具有较高模拟精度。考虑到近年来经济技术、节水措施和用水效率不断提高对用水量的影响,而这种影响只体现在时间上,本文提出了“四维”用水量模拟理念,即在模拟用水量时补充土地利用、人口和经济的时间序列特征。结果分析表明,“四维”模拟理念进一步提高了全国各地级行政区的用水量模拟精度。
英文摘要:
      By analyzing the factors affecting the data of water consumption in China and simulating the data of water consumption in each administrative region of China, it is of great significance for the evaluation of water consumption, efficient utilization and management of water resources and the realization of sustainable economic development. Based on the statistical data of land use distribution, population, economy and water consumption in administrative regions of China from 2000 to 2010, this paper simulates the data of water consumption with a two-layer feed-forward neural network model. The results show that the comprehensive simulation of water consumption for three influencing factors of land use distribution, population and economy has a high simulation accuracy. Considering the impact of economy and technology, water-saving measures and increasing water efficiency on water consumption in recent years, which is only reflected in time, this paper proposes the "four-dimensional" water consumption simulation concept, which is to supplement the time series characteristics of land use, population and economy. Through the analysis of the results, the "four-dimensional" simulation concept further improves the simulation accuracy of water consumption.
  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器