含跨区域调水的多水源水库群系统调度决策中需协调保障供水效益与降低供水成本的多目标矛盾,在综合考虑本地水资源与外调水资源供水相对成本差异的基础上,根据引调水成本的相对高低提出供水成本递增的多情景分层优化模型,以降低系统总缺水率为优化目标,以限定外调水量为约束,通过分情景优化分析外调水量的启用条件以及多水源联合供水协调关系。以南水北调东线受水区江苏段及洪泽湖、骆马湖为研究对象的水资源系统调度为例,计算结果表明：(1)两湖的本地水资源能满足平水及以上年型的用户用水需求；(2)当洪泽湖遭遇偏平及以上量级来水,且相对骆马湖来水丰沛时,启用洪泽湖向骆马湖调水可降低公共用户及骆马湖周边用户缺水量；(3)在现行协议供水量条件下,引调江水可解决洪泽湖、骆马湖枯水年型组合下的缺水问题；在特枯组合来水年型下,综合缺水率在5%-10%之间。(4)多年平均条件下,引调0.6倍协议引江水量时系统供水保证率为78.2%,平均综合缺水率为2.8%,是均衡考虑降低系统缺水及引江水成本的折中方案。

Policymakers should balance water supply conflicts between benefits and costs when making decisions about simulation and optimization of multi-reservoir operation in inter-basin water transfer system. Considering obvious differences between the cost of local and diverted water, we establish an optimization and multi-scenario model for water resources management based on cost of water-supply source. In this paper, we analyze use conditions and harmony of multi-water resources through the above model with minimum water supply shortage as objective function, restricted diverted water as constraint conditions. This paper takes Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake and the east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project as the research object, results indicate that: (1) Local water from Hongze Lake and Luoma Lake can meet the water demand of users in normal and high flow year. (2) We can reduce water shortages of users around HongZe Lake and public users by diverting water from Hongze Lake to Luoma Lake, while the inflow of Hongze Lake is normal or high and inflow of Luoma Lake is high. (3) The water shortage problem in low flow year can be solved through an effect on the agreed amount of annual diverted water from Yangtse River. The rate of water scarcity is between 5% and 10% in extreme drought year. (4) The guarantee rate of water supply is 78.2% and rate of water scarcity is 2.8% through an effect on 0.6 times that of agreed amount of annual diverted water from Yangtse River, and that is a compromise proposal which balances water supply conflicts between benefits and costs.

国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0405604）；国家自然科学基金(51609062)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2018B10514）；