针对缺水型城市水资源配置过程中的不确定性,建立了基于不确定性基本理论的区间两阶段随机规划模型,应用于北京市2025年水资源优化配置的研究。该模型以北京市用水综合效益最大为目标函数,引入概率分布和区间数表示多重不确定性,求得北京市2025年城六区与郊区在生活、工业、农业与生态用水上的优化供水目标以及不同来水水平下的配水方案。结果表明：北京市2025年优化供水目标为47.39亿m³,城六区工业用水与郊区农业用水的供水目标应采取保守值；不同来水水平下的优化配置水量为[36.49, 47.39]亿m³,仅北京为丰水年时不存在缺水现象,北京与丹江口水库同时遇枯时的缺水量高达[5.48, 10.90]亿m³,对北京市供水安全造成极大的威胁。该模型充分考虑不确定因素对水资源配置的影响,权衡用水收益与缺水风险的关系,并以区间的形式给出配置结果,可为北京市2025年供水目标与水资源优化配置方案的制定以及水资源安全保障措施的分析提供科学依据。

Considering the uncertainty in the water resources allocation process of water-deficient cities, an interval two-stage stochastic programming model was established for the study of optimal water resources allocation in Beijing in 2025. This model takes the maximum comprehensive benefit of water use in Beijing as the objective function, introduces probability distribution and interval number to represent multiple uncertainties, and obtains the optimal water supply objectives and water distribution schemes under different levels of water inflow for living, industrial, agricultural and ecological water use in six urban areas and suburbs of Beijing in 2025.The results show that the optimal water supply target of Beijing in 2025 is 4.739 billion m³, and the water supply target of industrial water in six urban areas and agricultural water in suburbs should be conservative. The optimal allocation of water under different levels of inflow is [3.649, 4.739] billion m³, and there is no water shortage only when Beijing in high flow year, while the water shortage is [0.548, 1.090] billion m³ when Beijing and Danjiangkou reservoir in low flow year at the same time, which poses a great threat to the water supply security of Beijing. This model fully considers the impact of uncertain factors on water resources allocation, weighs the relationship between water use benefits and water shortage risks, and obtains the allocation results in the form of interval. This study can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of water supply objectives and optimal allocation of water resources as well as the analysis of water resource security measures in Beijing in 2025.

TV213

国家重点研发计划项目；中国水科院基本科研业务费项目