[关键词]
[摘要]
气象要素变动深刻影响作物生长及粮食产量变化。为深入探究气象要素与夏玉米产量的关系,根据逐日气象数据、逐年作物数据,采用气候倾向率、M-K突变检验及相关性检验等方法对河北省夏玉米气象产量及相关气象要素变化特征进行分析,在此基础上探讨两者相关性及作用程度。结果显示:河北省平均、最高、最低气温呈显著上升趋势,日照时数、降水量、相对湿度、风速则呈显著下降趋势;1960-2017年河北省夏玉米气象产量以-568kg?hm-2/10a速度显著减少;气象产量与降水量、日照时数正相关,与平均气温、最高气温负相关;降水量、最低气温、风速和相对湿度是影响河北省夏玉米气象产量的关键气象要素,平均气温、最高气温和日照时数对夏玉米气象产量影响较小。研究成果可为优化农业资源结构,促进地区农业可持续发展提供理论支撑。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Changes in meteorological factors have profound effects on crop growth and grain yield. In order to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and summer corn yield, the meteorological yield and related meteorological factors of summer corn in Hebei Province were analyzed based on daily meteorological data and annual crop data, using methods such as climate propensity rate, M-K mutation test and correlation test. On the basis of this, the relevance and the degree of action of the two are discussed. The results showed that the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in Hebei province showed a significant upward trend, while the sunshine hours, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed showed a significant downward trend. From 1960 to 2017, the meteorological output of summer corn in Hebei Province was significantly reduced at -568 kg ? hm-2 / 10a; Meteorological output is positively related to precipitation and sunshine hours, and is negatively related to average temperature and maximum temperature. Precipitation, minimum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity are the key meteorological factors that affect the meteorological output of summer maize in Hebei Province. The research results can provide theoretical support for optimizing the structure of agricultural resources and promoting the sustainable development of regional agriculture.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家自然科学基金(51579126,51779114), 辽宁省“百千万人才工程”资助基金, 大连市科技创新基金(2018J13SN116)。