[关键词]
[摘要]
以引调水工程中倒虹吸管身失稳险情为研究对象,从自然、工程、人为及管理这四大因素出发,考虑其各风险因子间复杂、动态的关系,建立了基于系统动力学的风险分析反馈模型,分析影响倒虹吸工程稳定的因子的重要性程度,并采用层次分析法所得结果对构建的反馈模型进行验证,结果表明该模型具有良好的精度和一定的适用性,为将来引调水工程风险评估工作提供了一条新的途径。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Taking the instability of inverted siphon in water diversion project as the research object, considering the complex and dynamic relationship among its risk factors from the four factors of nature, engineering, man-made and management, a risk analysis feedback model based on system dynamics is established, and the importance of factors affecting the stability of inverted siphon project is analyzed. The results of analytic hierarchy process are used to validate the feedback model. The results show that the model has good accuracy and applicability, which provides a new way for risk assessment of water diversion projects in the future.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405006)