[关键词]
[摘要]
随着我国粮食生产重心的北移,西北地区在全国粮食安全当中的作用日益凸显,然而该地区水资源缺乏,水土资源时空匹配性差为当地的生态安全、粮食安全和水安全构成了巨大威胁。近些年,伴随着城市化和区域贸易的快速发展,西北地区粮食产量和外运量均快速增长,大量的粮食虚拟水伴随着粮食贸易输送到全国各地,进一步加剧了西北地区的水资源压力,严重制约当地的可持续发展。基于此,本研究对2000-2015年西北六省主要农作物生产水足迹和伴随着农产品贸易的虚拟水流动格局进行了量化分析,在此基础上评估了西北地区农产品贸易输出引发的水资源压力。结果表明,近15年来,西北地区主要农作物生产水足迹呈上升趋势,从2000年的417.16亿m3增长到2015年的439.87亿m3。与此同时,农产品贸易伴生的虚拟水流出量显著增加,从2000年的220亿m3增长到2015年的272.99亿m3,增长率达到24%,由此造成当地水资源压力剧增,以陕西、内蒙古、新疆和甘肃最为严峻。基于此,本文最后就技术发展和宏观战略层面提出了应对策略与建议,为保障我国西北地区水资源可持续利用提供了科学参考。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
With the northward shift of the grain production center in China, the northwest plays an increasingly prominent role in the national food security. However, the lack of water resources and the poor spatial and temporal compatibility of soil and water resources in this region pose a great threat to the local ecological security, food security and water security. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization and regional trade, the grain production and ransport volume in northwest China have been increasing rapidly. A large amount of virtual water for grain has been transported to all parts of the country along with the grain trade, which further aggravates the pressure on water resources in northwest China and seriously restricts the sustainable development of the region. Based on this, this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the water footprint of major crops and the virtual water flow pattern accompanied by agricultural products trade in six provinces in northwest China from 2000 to 2015, and then assessed the water resource pressure caused by agricultural products trade output in northwest China. The results showed that in the past 15 years, the water footprint of major crops in northwest China showed an upward trend, increasing from 41.716 billion m3 in 2000 to 43.987 billion m3 in 2015. Meanwhile, the virtual water flow associated with agricultural products trade increased significantly, from 22 billion m3 in 2000 to 27.29 billion m3 in 2015, with an increase rate of 24%. As a result, the pressure of local water resources increased sharply, especially in shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Gansu. Based on this, this paper finally puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on technical development and macro strategy, providing scientific reference for ensuring sustainable utilization of water resources in northwest China.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0215702);中国工程院咨询研究项目(2016-ZD-08);中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(IWHR-SKL-201601)