海河上游清水河流域地处我国北方半干旱半湿润过渡带,水资源短缺且生态环境极为脆弱,对气候变化和人类活动高度敏感。明晰变化环境下清水河流域的径流演变规律及气候变化和人类活动的贡献,对实现流域内水资源的可持续利用以及确保本流域作为首都地区生态屏障的功能定位具有重要的意义。根据清水河张家口水文站和啕来庙水文站近70年的实测径流资料,利用有序聚类分析、小波分析和双累积曲线等方法,系统分析了清水河流域径流演变特性及气候变化和人类活动的影响。结果表明:(1)近70年清水河流域径流呈显著减少趋势,径流深年均减少0.6 mm；各月径流亦均呈显著减少趋势,其中以春夏两个汛期的减少最为显著；(2)径流在1979年前后发生突变,径流变化的第一、二主周期分别为27a、8a；(3)径流年内分布的不均匀程度明显增加,春汛(3~4月)占全年径流总量的比例增加,而夏汛(7~8月)占全年径流总量的比例则呈现减少态势；(4)双累积曲线分析结果表明径流演变的主要驱动因素为人类活动(89%)。

As a tributary of the Hai River, the Qingshui River watershed is located in the semi-arid and semi-humid transition zone in the north of China where water resources are highly scarcity and ecological environment is extremely fragile. Both water resources and ecological environment are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. The analysis of characteristics and driving forces of runoff evolution under changing environment is of great significance for the sustainable use of water resources, and is critical for maintaining the ecological barrier function for the capital region. To identify the variability of runoff from Qingshui River, long term (1950s-2016) daily runoff data from the Zhangjiakou and Taolaimiao stations were analyzed. To quantify the runoff evolution and its hydrological response to climate change and human activities, order cluster analysis, wavelet analysis and double accumulation curve methods were applied. The main results are as follows: 1. the mean annual runoff in the Qingshui River watershed decreased significantly in the last 70 years, and the average runoff depth decreased at a rate of 0.6mm/a. Monthly runoff decreased significantly, especially in the spring and summer flood seasons. 2. runoff from the Qingshui River has an abrupt change around 1979, and the first and second main periods of runoff evolution were 27a and 8a, respectively. 3. Nonuniformity of intra-annual runoff distribution increased significantly, with the proportion of spring flood (3-4) in the annual runoff increased while the proportion of summer flood (7-8) decreased. 4. double mass curve analysis indicates that human activities are the main driving factors for the runoff variability, accounts for nearly 89%.

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国家自然科学基金项目（41701017、41807177）、河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目（18397002D）、张家口市科技计划项目（1711027C和1711052J）、河北建筑工程学院研究生创新基金项目（XA201921）和科技部国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFC0401403）