针对一个实际独立计量区域(DMA)，根据数据采集与监控系统(SCADA)的数据，采用趋势图和灰色关联度分析了DMA入水口的流量特征。然后基于灰色理论建立4个夜间最小流量的灰色模型，对比分析4个模型的模拟和预测精度，确定离散灰色DGM(1,1)模型是此DMA的夜间最小流量的最佳预测模型。灰色DGM(1,1)新陈代谢模型具有很好的动态预测精度，应用灰色DGM(1,1)新陈代谢区间预测方法分析了此DMA区域的夜间最小流量的阈值，从而为DMA的漏失状况起到预警作用。

Taking an actual district metering area (DMA) as an example case study, and based on the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition, the characteristics of flow discharge at the inlet of DMA’s inlet flow are analyzed by using the trend chart and grey correlation analysis. Moreover, 4 grey models of minimum night flow(MNF) are built developed based on the grey theory, which suggests and it is concluded that the grey DGM(1,1) model is supposed to be the best model for predicting DMA’s MNF by comparativelywhen comparing the accuracies analyzing the of modeling and forecasting accuracy of those modelsmodel and prediction results. The grey DGM(1,1) metabolic model is ahas good dynamic prediction model accuracy. The threshold of the DMA’s MNF is obtained by using the application of the grey DGM(1,1) metabolic model for interval predication, which plays has an early warning effect for assessing the leakage condition of DMA.