利用可公度理论中的三元—五元可公度式及其拓展式，从粗粒度角度对郑州地区从1901年—2000年严重干旱等级以上记载年份进行可公度数统计和分析，依据预测结果结合数据挖掘理论中的关联规则算法作进一步推演和修正，结果表明该方法预测准确率达80%，同时预测从2013年—2015年郑州市不会发生严重以上等级干旱。

The paper using three yuan to five yuan formula of commensurability theory and its develop formula, From the view of coarse granularity, based on the severe drought of Zhengzhou from 1901 to 2000, using commensurable theory to statistics and analysis, and then based the results,using association rule deduce and check again，the result shows that the accurate rate is as high as 80%, and at the same time prediction from 2013 to 2015, zhengzhou city won't occur serious drought above grade.

国家自然基金资助项目（41071025）；河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目（2010B120007）；华北水利水电学院大学生创新性实验计划项目（201319）