根据新密市1971-2010年气象统计资料，采用Mann-Kendall检验方法对年平均气温及降水量进行趋势变化及突变分析。结合1981~2008年社会经济资料，确定影响新密市气温、降水量变化的人为驱动力因子指标，并运用灰色关联度分析法，综合判断人为作用影响强度的年际变化，及气温突变前后主要人为驱动力因子的时序变化情况，以对新密市气候变化人为驱动力因子进行分析、气温突变前后人为驱动力因子进行识别。分析发现新密市气候变化特征表现为年、季平均气温持续上升，年平均降水量并没有明显的增加或减少趋势，1993年发生气温上升突变；人口密度快速增长是新密市气温变化的主要动力，其次是农业发展和能源消耗。

The Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the trend variations and mutations of annual average temperature and precipitation based on the meteorological data of Xinmi City from 1971 to 2000. The anthropogenic driving forces affecting the variations of temperature and precipitation were determined by the socio-economic data collected from 1981 to 2008. The gray relational analysis was used to characterize the interannual variability of impact strength of human activities and the temporal variations of anthropogenic driving factors before and after the temperature mutation. , and therefore the anthropogenic driving factors affecting the climate change can be analyzed and identified. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal atmospheric temperatures increase with a temperature mutation in 1993 while the annual precipitation has significant increasing or decreasing trends. The rapid growth of population density is the primary driving force of the temperature change in Xinmi, and followed by the agricultural development and energy consumption.

国家自然科学基金(51279183和51079132)、河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划(2013)