公路边坡一旦失稳可能对人类生命、财产、经济活动造成重大损失，开展边坡安全风险评估一直以来都是工程建设中的一项重要工作。以湖北省十堰至白河公路阳南沟隧道出口边坡为例，采用Monte Carlo模拟方法得到了正常工况和非正常工况Ⅰ条件下边坡的稳定性系数和破坏概率，并针对边坡影响范围内的承灾体进行了易损性分析，从而得出边坡可能的经济损失价值和人口伤亡状况。结果表明，阳南沟隧道出口边坡在正常工况条件下的风险等级为Ⅰ级、低度，而非正常工况Ⅰ条件下的风险等级为Ⅱ级、中度。根据风险接受准则，该边坡在正常工况条件下风险较小，处于可接受范围之内；在非正常工况Ⅰ条件下风险次之，应予以监测，尤其在施工过程和不利自然条件下更应加强边坡变形情况监测。

Road slope instability is likely to cause significant losses of human life, property, and economic activities; therefore the slope safety risk assessment is an important task in the engineering construction. In this paper, the slope at the outlet of Yangnangou tunnel on the road between Shiyan and Baihe of Hubei Province was investigated using the, Monte Carlo simulation to obtain its stability coefficient and probability to failure under the conditions of normal and abnormal conditions. Additionally, the vulnerability for the hazard-affected body within the impacted area was analyzed, which can provide the possible economic losses and population casualties through the risk calculation formula. The results showed that the level of risk of the slope at the Yangnangou tunnel exit under the normal working conditions is class I, while the level of risk under the abnormal working conditions is class II . According to the risk acceptance criteria, this slope had less risk under the normal working conditions and the risk was within the acceptable range. This slope had higher risk under the abnormal working conditions; therefore the deformation of the slope needs to be monitored, especially under the construction process and adverse natural conditions.

湖北省交通科技项目《环境变化与工程活动条件下滑坡体演化特征及其防治技术研究》（2011-700-3-11）资助