农田水利是粮食产出的一个重要投资方面。为了更具体地分析农田水利投资对提高粮食综合生产能力的促进机理和影响程度，利用黑龙江省历史数据建立了VAR模型，对农田水利投资进行了实证分析。结果表明：水利建设投资对粮食综合生产能力具有显著的正向冲击影响；这种影响主要是通过降低水旱等自然灾害和调节粮食作物结构来实现的；这种影响具有时滞性，主要在3-6年的时间段内比较有效。为此，提出了加大主产区水利建设支持力度、改变投资方式和资金管理模式、因地制宜、分类重点投资等对策。

Numerous studies have shown that water conservancy investment has played an important role in promoting food production. In order to investigate the promotion mechanism and impact level of agricultural water conservancy investment on the grain production capacity, we used the historical data in Heilongjiang Province to establish a VAR model to analyze the effects of agricultural water conservancy investment. The results showed that the water conservancy investment has a significantly positive impact on the comprehensive grain production capacity, and this impact is realized through the reduction of natural disasters such as flood and adjustment of crop structure. Moreover, this impact has time lag and is mainly effective in the period of 3 to 6 years after the water conservancy construction. On this basis, we proposed several measures including increasing support efforts of water conservancy construction in the main production area, varying the investment and fund management mode, and focusing on investment countermeasures based on local conditions.

教育部人文社科青年基金项目（12YJC790244）；黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划重大决策咨询项目(11G002)；黑龙江省教育厅人文社科重点研究项目(1252z011)；黑龙江省教育厅2012年度教改项目（JG2012010057）