根据滦河流域滦县站1950年－2009年的逐日降水资料、逐日流量资料，运用数理统计等方法系统分析了滦河流域径流的年际、代际、年内变化特征和径流的变化趋势，并对滦河流域降水变化做了相应分析，探讨了降水和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：滦河流域径流的年际变化剧烈，代际变化明显，1950年－1979年基本处于丰水期阶段，1980年后基本处于枯水期阶段；径流年内分配极不均匀，主要集中在7月－9月，几乎占全年的66.2%。滦河流域径流有显著的递减趋势，降水与径流变化趋势基本一致，不同阶段降水和人类活动对径流的影响不同，1959年－1968年，降水和人类活动均对径流的增加做出了贡献；1969年－2009年，人类活动是该时期滦河流域径流减少的主要原因。

According to the daily precipitation and the runoff data of the Luanxian station in the Luanhe River Basin from 1950 to 2009, the mathematical statistics method was applied in this study to analyze the inter-annual, inter-generation, and annual variation characteristics and trend of runoff, and to investigate the variation of precipitation in the Luanhe River Basin to help discover the effects of precipitation and human activities to runoff. The results showed that both the inter-annual and inter-generation runoff variations are apparent in the Luanhe River Basin, and high flow period occurred from 1950 to 1979 and low flow period appeared after 1980. Furthermore, the annual runoff of the Luanhe River Basin was unevenly distributed with 66.2% of runoff occurring from July to September. Both the runoff and precipitation of the Luanhe River Basin had the significant decreasing trend. During the period of 1959 to 1968, the increasing runoff in the Luanhe River Basin can be attributed to both the precipitation and human activities; while during the period of 1969 to 2009, human activity was the main reason for the decreasing of runoff.

水利部公益性行业科研专项（201101017）