南四湖流域是南水北调东线工程的关键区域，研究该区土地利用现状及未来发展态势对于保障工程顺利实施以及促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。在RS与GIS技术的支持下，获取了南四湖流域1995年--2010年土地利用序列数据，并利用信息熵理论对流域土地利用类型变化和结构演变进行定量分析。结果表明，1995年-2010年南四湖流域耕地持续减少，植被覆盖水平有所恢复，水域湿地和建设用地大幅度增加；土地利用信息熵升高，均衡度增加，优势度降低，单个类型对整体结构的控制力下降，土地利用结构趋于均衡；1995年-2000年土地利用程度综合指数降低，但2000年之后持续升高，流域土地利用处于发展期。利用GM(1,1)模型进行土地利用演变预测，结果显示流域土地利用结构将进一步调整并向均衡化方向发展。

The Nansihu Lake Wwatershed was is the key area of Eastern Route of South-to-North Water TransferDiversion Project, and therefore. It was it is of great importance to study the current situation of land use and its future development trend in order to guaranteeing the smooth implementation of the South-to-North Water Transfer Diversion Pproject and to promotepromoting the sustainable development development of the areathat researched the present situation of land use and its development trend in the future. Under the support of RS and GIS technology, obtained the a series of land use series data of land use change was obtained in theof Nansihu Lake Wwatershed during the period of from 1995 to- 2010, and . Based on the information entropy theory was used to analyze the variation and structural evolution of land use quantitatively. , this paper quantitatively analyzed the change of land use type and land use structure. The results indicated showed that (1) the farm land reducesd continuously, the level of vegetation cover restored recovers, and the water and wetland and the construction land were enlargedincrease from 1950 to 2010; (2) in a large extent. tThe land use information entropy increasesd, the equilibrium degree raised rises whereasand the dominance degree declineddecreases, which shownindicating the decreasing controlling force of single type to the entire land use structure abated and, a tendency to balance of land use structure tended to balance; ; and (3) the integrated comprehensive index of land use degree dropped decreases from 1950 to 2000during 1995-2000, but increases continuously raised since 2000, suggesting a developing stage for land use in the watershedwhich revealed that the land of Nansihu Lake watershed was in development stage. Using tThe GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the land use change, the resultswhich indicated that the land use structure would further adjust to reach the balanceand become more and more balanced.

教育部人文社科基金青年项目（12YJC790254;11YJC790283）；山东省高校人文社会科学研究项目（J11WF12）；山东省自然科学基金（2010ZRE14029）