通过构建外调水-当地水联合调配模型和对水源置换流程的解析，以南水北调东、中线一期工程海河流域受水区为研究范围，分析了通水后受水区地下水调控与生态环境修复状态下的水量配置情景，定量评价了受水区的水源置换效应。结果表明东、中线一期工程来水中约1/3用于支撑城镇新增需水，2/3用于置换现有不合理用水并返还农业和生态。通过城镇水源置换能够使受水区的生态环境得到改善，但是一期工程通水条件下现有水资源短缺和生态恶化的矛盾尚不能根本解决，还必须采取强化节水、治污、控制地下水超采和多水源合理配置等多种措施，唯此才能充分发挥南水北调工程效益。

In order to evaluate the effects of water source replacement quantitatively, joint allocation model of the external and local water resources was established and applied in the water-receiving areas of Haihe Basin of the 1st stage of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). Based on the analysis of the water source replacement process, different scenarios of water allocation were analyzed under the conditions of groundwater control and eco-environmental restoration in the water-receiving areas. The results showed that one third of intake water from the 1st stage of SNWTP is used to support the increasing urban water demand, and two thirds is used to replace the existing unreasonable water uses and to return to the agricultural and ecological construction. The water source replacement can improve the eco-environment conditions in the water-receiving areas. However, the conflict between water resources shortage and ecological deterioration cannot be solved for the 1st stage of SNWTP, and therefore other measures need to be conducted to optimize the profit of SNWTP, including water saving, pollution control, groundwater overdraft control, and reasonable allocation of various water sources.

国家自然科学基金（50879091；50939006；51021006）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201101016）