根据江苏省的水资源现状，采取系统动力学仿真模拟方法对2020年和2030年50%、75%、95%保证率下全省水资源供需水进行预测，在此基础上分别进行基于现状供水能力的一次供需平衡分析以及提高供水能力和节水措施下的二次供需平衡分析。结果表明，一次供需平衡分析时，供需缺口很大；二次供需平衡分析时，供需矛盾得到很大程度的改善，2020年50%保证率下供需缺口降低49.70%，2030年50%保证率下供需缺口降低47.43%。

According to the present water resources conditions of Jiangsu Province, system dynamics simulation method was used to predict the water resources supply and demand balance in Jiangsu Province in 2020 and 2030 level year under different guarantee rates (50%, 75%, and 95%). On the basis, the first time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources was performed under the current conditions, and the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources was performed under the conditions of improved water supply capacity and water saving measures. The results showed insufficiency for the first time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources, and that the imbalance between supply and demand improves for the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources. The insufficiency can decrease 49.70% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2020, and decrease 47.43% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2030.

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301003;201201022;201001074） 国家自然科学基金（51109055;51279223） 江苏省社会科学基金重点项目（11GLA001）