在不能高精度预测后续洪水的现状下，对历史暴雨洪水信息进行挖掘，对降低水库防洪调度风险具有现实意义。制定将历史洪水标准化的方法，并根据暴雨洪水形成机制和实时信息的易获取性，筛选出能反映洪水特征的指标体系，并基于灰色关联分析原理构建了相似洪水动态识别办法和相似洪水展延实时洪水预报过程的展延效果评价方法。池潭水库历史暴雨洪水模拟结果表明提出的洪水展延方法对后续来水估计的总有效率高，效果显著，该方法应用效果、适应性、稳定性均较好。

Under the current conditions that the subsequent flood cannot be predicted with high accuracy, the study on the historical storm flood information is important as it may provide valuable information to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control. In this paper, we developed a method to standardize the historical flood and selected the index system to reflect the flood characteristics on the basis of the formation mechanism of storm flood and available real-time information. Based on the gray correlation analysis theory, a dynamic identification approach of similar flood and an evaluation method of the extending effects of real-time flood forecasting process of similar flood were developed. The methods were applied to simulate the storm flood in the Chitan reservoir, which showed that the flood extending method has high efficiency to estimate the subsequent flood. Overall, the method is applicable, adaptable, and stable.

973计划项目（2013CB036406）；国家自然科学基金（51179044）；全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划（973计划）（2010CB951102）