受基础设施建设、工农业生产、生态环境建设等人类活动影响，海河流域下垫面发生了一些变化，导致设计洪水也随之发生相应的变化。现根据王快水库实测降雨径流资料，对降雨和洪峰进行趋势与变异分析，识别出入库洪水序列的变异点，然后采用降雨径流相关法、峰量相关法对洪量和洪峰序列进行了修订，并对修订前后的洪水序列进行了频率分析。结果表明，下垫面变化的影响会使入库设计洪水减小，相应水库校核防洪标准10 000年一遇的洪峰流量减少了2.38%。探讨下垫面变化后入库设计洪水的修订问题，对于调整流域防洪对策和防洪工程的布局具有重要的现实意义。

Under the influence of infrastructure construction，industrial and agricultural production，ecological environment construction, and other human activities，the underlying surface of the Haihe River Basin has been changed，which leads to corresponding variation in the design flood. In this paper，based on the data of measured rainfall and runoff in the Wangkuai Reservoir，the trend and aberrance point of rainfall and flood peak were analyzed and used to identify the aberrance point in the series of reservoir inflow flood. The rainfall-runoff relationship method and the peak-volume correlation method were used to modify the series of flood volume and flood peak in the Wangkuai Reservoir, and flood frequency analysis was performed on the flood series before and after modification. The results showed that the variation of underlying surface can cause the reduction in the reservoir inflow design flood, and the corresponding flood control standard of the worst flood once in ten thousand years has decreased by 2.38%. The study of the revision on reservoir inflow design flood under then variation of underlying surface is of important significance for the adjustment of flood control measures and layout of flood control engineering.

国家自然科学基金项目（51279123；51179117）