集合预报是针对数值预报的不确定性而发展起来的概率预报技术，在水库控制中应用集合预报信息可以延长水文预报有效预见期并且提高预报精度。目前，集合预报已在发达国家中得到广泛的应用。现概括了集合预报的发展过程，并从洪水预警、径流预报、水库调度决策3个方面分析了集合预报在水文领域中的研究进展，探讨了集合预报的检验和集合预报应用中存在的关键问题。

Ensemble forecast is a probabilistic forecast technique developed from the uncertainty of numerical prediction. Using ensemble forecast can improve the forecast time and accuracy of hydrological forecast in reservoir operation. It has been widely used in developed countries. In this paper, the development progress of ensemble forecast was introduced, and the research progress on ensemble forecast in hydrological application was analyzed from three aspects, including the flood warning, runoff prediction, and reservoir regulation. In addition, the verification of ensemble forecast and key issues in the hydrological application were discussed.

国家自然科学基金资助项目（51109025）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（DUT13JS06）；水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（2012490411）；水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（1214）