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[摘要]
资料显示,南水北调中线受水区近50年来气温增高1℃左右。为了分析气候变化对未来南水北调水源区需调水量的影响,本文以南水北调中线受水区为研究对象,采用WCRP的CMIP3数据,运用WEP-L分布式水文模型,计算气候变化情景对南水北调中线受水区径流量的影响。研究成果对于南水北调中线工程通水后水源区需调水量研究具有重要的借鉴意义,为研究气候变化对径流量的影响提供了一种可靠的方法,并为分析气候变化对水循环的影响奠定了重要的基础。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Previous results showed that the temperature of the intake area in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project increases by about 1℃ in recent 50 years. In order to analyze the impact of climate change on the future water regulation quantity in the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the paper investigated the impact of climate change on the intake area runoff in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project using the WEP-L distributed hydrological model based on the CMIP3 data of WCRP. The results are of an important significance for the study of water regulation quantity in the water source area during the operation of Middle-Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, provide a reliable method for the study of the impact of climate change on runoff, and lay an important foundation for the analysis of the impact of climate change on hydrologic cycle.
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