水资源系统风险评估是保障水资源安全及其可持续利用的关键。针对三江平原存在着水资源开发利用率低、水资源短缺和供需不平衡等诸多问题，利用观控风险分析模型对三江平原及其区划内8个区域进行水资源承载力的风险评估。通过对风险和收益值的同步分析，确定了各区域的水资源承载力强弱程度，并在此基础上提出相应管理措施。研究结果为三江平原科学合理地制定水资源可持续利用策略提供了重要的理论依据，同时也为水资源系统的风险评估研究开阔了新的思路。

Based on the daily rainfall data at 61 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai area from 1961 to 2010 and the data of《Tropical Cyclone Yearbook》, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone rainstorm were analyzed using the methods of regression analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The results showed that the tropical cyclone in the Huang-Huai-Hai region usually lands intensely in the coastal place of Zhejiang and Fujian in August with the type of northward class path. Overall, the tropical cyclone rainstorm of the Huang-Huai-Hai area accounts for a small proportion of the total storm, but it has high intensity and the average amount of tropical cyclone rainstorm reaches 93.2 mm, which is similar to the heavy rainstorm. The temporal and spatial distribution of the frequency and amount of tropical cyclone rainstorm are both unbalanced. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone rainstorm in the Huang-Huai-Hai region increases in recent years, and the east coast and central and western regions?are most likely influenced by tropical cyclone with high frequency and heavy rainstorm. In addition, the frequency of tropical cyclone rainstorm shows a decreasing trend from east to west on the whole, but the distribution of rainstorm quantity is not apparent.

国家自然科学基金（51179032；51209038；51279031）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301096）；黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目（12531009）；黑龙江省普通高校新世纪优秀人才培养计划（NO.1155-NCET-004）