在西南地区的大型水电项目中，库区内一些难于治理的大型滑坡堆积体，常会因库水调度而复活，因此需要对库区水位升降的幅度进行控制。以黑水河库区内已复活的某堆积体滑坡为实例，利用滑坡DM01监测点垂向位移变化实测数据，详细地分析了初期蓄水期间滑坡的动态变化规律和特征，并拟定了库区水位升降控制方案。为了论证该控制方案的可行性，提取了库水位等控制滑坡变形的主要影响因素，利用逐步回归法建立了堆积体滑坡位移的回归预测模型，对控制方案下的滑坡变形趋势值进行了预测，结果表明拟定的控制方案能有效避免滑体再次产生复活。

During the operation of hydroelectric projects in southwestern China, several large-scale landslide deposits, which are difficult to treat with, often reactivate due to reservoir a regulation. Controlling the range of water level fluctuation of the reservoir is the key point for the regular operation of hydroelectric project. In this paper, the control scheme of water level fluctuation in the Heishui River reservoir was proposed based on a reactivated landslide in the reservoir. First, the displacement variations of the landslide during the impoundment were analyzed using the monitored vertical displacement data at DM01 monitoring point of the landslide. Secondly, the main controlling factors for the landslide deformation were concluded. Finally, a prediction model for the displacement of landslide was developed using the stepwise regression method, which was used to predict the deformation of the landslide under the control scheme. The results showed that the control scheme can prevent the reactivation of the landslide.

地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室开放基金“高拱坝坝肩岩体抗滑稳定性工程地质研究”（SKLGP2012K032）资助成果。