分布式水文模型PRMS（The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System）考虑了降水、气候和土地利用等因素，可模拟产流、产沙等描述流域水和物质循环的重要变量。本文利用沙颍河实测流量资料对建立的PRMS模型进行了校正和验证，据此模拟了该流域城镇化和闸坝工程对沙颍河流量的影响，结果表明：城镇化使地面不透水面积增加，导致流域蒸散量和降雨入渗减少，产流量增加，而闸坝闸坝等水工建筑物改变了流域水资源的时空分配，减弱了自然径流量的波动性，增加了水面蒸发，使流域径流量峰值减小，径流洪峰滞后。城镇化和闸坝对河流径流的影响在枯水年尤为明显。

The distributed hydrological model, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), takes into account of precipitation, climate, and land use, and can be used to simulate the important variables representing the water and mass cycle in a basin such as water and sediment. In this paper, the PRMS model was calibrated and validated with the observed runoff data, and then the validated model was used to simulate the impacts of urbanization and dams on runoff in the Shaying River basin. The results showed that the evaporation and infiltration decrease whereas runoff increases in the basin due to the expansion of impermeable land surface as a result of urbanization. The presence of dams can change the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in the basin, dampen the variation of natural runoff, increase the water surface evaporation, decrease the peak runoff, and then delay the time of peak flow. The impacts of urbanization and dams on runoff were more obvious in the dry years.

国家自然科学基金（41272260）； 淮河流域地表与地下水氮源补排及防控关键技术研究与示范（2012ZX07210-004）