[关键词]
[摘要]
本文根据泾河上游流域内1973年-2012年水文气象数据,采用气候弹性系数法研究了气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响。结果表明:泾河年径流呈显著减少趋势,减少速率为-13.1 mm/10a,且在1985年前后发生了径流突变;气候变化对泾河上游流域径流减少的贡献率为36.8~43.8%,而人类活动的贡献率为56.2~63.2%。可见,气候变化和人类活动均会导致泾河流域上游径流减少,但人类活动是主要驱动力。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
The impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upper reaches of the Jinghe River Basin were investigated using the climate elasticity method based on the hydrological and meteorological data from 1973 to 2012. The results showed that the annual runoff decreased significantly with a rate of -13.1 mm/10a and an abrupt change occurred around year 1985. The climate change accounted for 36.8~43.8% to the decreasing in runoff, while human activities accounted for 56.2~63.2%. Both of the climate change and human activities can result in the decline of runoff in the upper reaches of the Jinghe River Basin, but human activities played a dominant role.
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[基金项目]
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(HKY-JBYW-2013-23,HKY-JBYW-2013-22)