[关键词]
[摘要]
采用回归分析和滑动平均等方法, 从年际变化和季节变化角度出发, 选取平均降水量、降水频率、降水强度、极 端降水事件及最大日降水量等指标, 对赣州市1951 年- 2011 年的降水变化特征及趋势进行了分析。研究表明, 近 61 年来, 赣州市多年平均降水为229. 6 mm; 春夏两季为湿季, 秋冬两季为干季; 降水量、降水频率和极端降水事件 呈缓慢下降的趋势, 而降水强度和最大日降水量呈缓慢上升的趋势。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
The va riation char acteristics and trend of precipitation in Ganzho u from 1951 to 2011 w ere analyzed using the methods of linear reg ression and mo ving averag e from the perspect ive of seasonal and int erannual v ariat ions. Five indexes wer e used, in2 cluding the av erag e precipitat ion, r ainfall fr equency, rainfall intensity, extr eme precipitat ion ev ents, and max imum daily pr ecipita2 tion. T he r esult s show ed that the av erag e annual rainfall in Ganzhou is 229. 6 mm in recent 61 year s; the spring and summer ar e the w et seasons w hile the autumn and w inter are the dry seaso ns; and t he pr ecipitatio n, precipitatio n fr equency, and ex tr eme pre2 cipitat ion events decrease slowly w hile the precipitation intensit y and max imum daily pr ecipitatio n incr ease slowly.
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[基金项目]
湖南省气象局短平快科研课题( 201402)