基于塔里木河源流区6 个水文站1957 年- 2008 年的实测径流资料, 运用非参数检验、小波分析等方法探讨 了径流量年内变化特征。结果表明: 塔里木河源流区月径流量以及丰水期、枯水期径流量以显著增加趋势为主; 源 流山区径流量集中度指数在协合拉水文站有轻微增加, 而在其他5 个水文站皆表现减少趋势; 径流量集中度指数的 显著周期集中在3~ 8 a。以上研究结果可为实现该流域水资源的合理配置提供理论依据。

Based on the runo ff data fr om six hydro log ical statio ns in the mo untain headstream a rea o f T arim Riv er Basin from 1957 t o 2008, the intr a2annua l var iation of runoff w as analyzed using the no n2 par amet ric t est and w avelet analysis. The r esults show ed that the mo nthly r unoff, and runoff during the hig h2 and low2flow per io ds in the headstream area increase significantly; in mountain headstr eam area, the concent ratio n deg ree index ( CDI) at the Xiehela hydro lo gical statio n increases slig htly , w hile the indexes at the other five statio ns ( Shanlig uilank, Kaqun, Yuzmenlek, T ongg uzlek, and Wuluw ati) decrease; The concentr a2 tion deg ree indexes of r unoff in the mountain headstr eam ar ea has a significant perio d of 3 to 8 y ea rs. Overall, the results of the study can pr ov ide a scientific basis for realizing the sustainable use o f water resour ces in the Tar im Riv er basin.