为了揭示水资源、经济和人口之间的关系, 合理开发利用水资源, 促进社会经济的可持续发展, 选取鄱阳湖区 11 个县市为研究区域, 利用GRACE 卫星数据反演水量, 采用生态服务评估方法计算了各县市水资源承载水平与 水资源承载力, 并对鄱阳湖区2010 年水资源承载情况进行了评价。研究表明: 鄱阳县、南昌县和进贤县水资源承载 力较高, 而德安县、星子县和湖口县较低; 九江市市区水资源承载水平最高, 南昌县、新建县、进贤县次之, 德安县、星 子县及其他县水资源承载水平较低; 综合经济水平、文化水平、生态服务支撑功能与生态服务同化功能这四种因素, 九江市市区、南昌县、星子县和湖口县单位水资源承载水平居高; 新建县和九江市市区生态系统对经济发展产生污 染的同化功能较差, 其他9 个县的同化功能均达标。

In or der t o bet ter r ev eal the relatio nship betw een w ater r eso ur ces, eco nomy and population, utilize w ater r eso urces r a2 tionally, and promo te the sustainable dev elo pment of economy and society , w ater r eso ur ces carr ying capacity was r esear ched in2 depth. Based on the new theor ies o f w ater r eso urces carr ying capacity , w ater resour ces carr ying level and w ater resources car ry2 ing capacit y w er e calculated in 11 co unties and cit ies of Po yang Lake area using the metho ds o f GRACE water quantit y inversio n and ecolo gica l assessment , and the w ater resour ces carr ying co nditions o f Poy ang Lake area in 2010 w ere evaluat ed. T he r esults sug gested that the w ater r eso ur ces carr ying capacity in Po yang, Nanchang , and Jinx ian counties is hig her than that in Dean, Xingzi, and H ukou counties. The water resources carry ing level is the hig hest in the urban area of Jiujiang, followed by Nanchang, Xin2 jian and Jinxian counties, while it is low in Dean, Xingzi, and other counties. Considering the factors of economic level, education level, eco2service support function, and eco2service assimilation function, the unit level of w ater resources carr ying capacity is hig h in the urban area of Jiujiang, Nanchang, Xinzi, and Hukou counties. The assimilation function of eco system on the po llution from economic develop2 ment is bad in Xinjian county and urban area of Jiujiang, while it meets the standard in other 9 counties.

国家自然科学基金项目( 51279006) ; 国家科技支撑计划课题( 2013BAB05B04)