溃坝风险人口应急避难作为水库大坝安全管理应急预案的重要内容, 是避免或减少溃坝生命损失的有效手 段。通过对溃坝数值模拟、风险人口分布预测、应急避难场所规划、应急撤离时间估算等溃坝风险人口应急避难相 关的四个方面的研究现状和研究进展进行了综述。其中溃坝数值模拟是应急避难分析的基础性工作, 包括溃口模 拟和溃坝洪水演进分析两部分内容; 风险人口分布预测则需要考虑不同时间情景下的动态分布; 针对溃坝应急避难 场所规划的研究尚不多见, 但可借鉴防洪应急避难选址研究成果; 应急撤离时间主要研究内容是撤离活动所用时间 的估算, 可根据撤离方式选择相应的算法。

Emerg ency ev acuation caused by dam2break is not only an im po rtant co ntent of emerg ency preparation plan of dam safety manag ement, but also an effective measure to avo id o r reduce t he lo ss of life. The research pr og ress of emerg ency evacua2 tion caused by dam2break w as summarized from four perspect ives in this paper , including t he numerical simulatio n o f dam2 br eak, dist ributio n of population at risk, planning of emer gency evacuation shelter s, and estimat ion of emer gency ev acuatio n time. Dam2br eak numer ical simulation is the fundamental w or k, including t he burst simulatio n and dam2br eak floo d evolution. The distr ibut ion of population at risk needs to co nsider the dynamic distributio ns dur ing different t ime per iods. The research o n the planning of emer gency ev acuation shelter s due to dam2break is ra re, and the r esear ch results on the planning of emerg ency e2 v acuatio n shelt ers due to floo d can be used as a reference. Emerg ency evacuation time refers to the time estimation o f ev acuatio n act ivit ies, w hich can be calculat ed based on different evacuat ion schemes.

水利部公益行业科研专项( 201001034; 201101028; 201201051) ; 南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金重点项目 (Y713009) ; 南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金面上项目( Y712004)