针对5000 年一遇校核洪水副坝可能发生管涌导致溃坝的情况, 应用Breach 数学模型和River 2D 二维洪水演 进计算软件, 计算了最初7 h 溃口流量与时间关系过程线, 建立了坝址至下游赣州钴冶炼厂段有限单元数值模型, 模拟了副坝溃决后研究范围内的洪水演进过程, 估算了生命损失值, 分析了生命社会风险。结果表明, 副坝发生溃 坝后, 洪水将影响到2 个行政村( 镇) 、15 个自然村( 区) , 受灾人口达70 462 人, 溃坝警报时间小于或等于5 h, 生命损 失值达百人以上, 生命社会风险是不可容忍的。该研究成果可作为水库制定大坝安全管理应急预案的参考依据。

The once2in250002y ears check flo od in the aux iliar y dam can cause piping effect and dam2br eak. In this paper, Breach mathematica l model and t wo2dimensional flo od routing so ftw are Riv er2D wer e used t o calculate the hydro gr aph o f flow rate at the breach w ith time dur ing the init ial seven hours and to develop a finite element numer ical mo del from the dam to the down2 str eam of Ganzho u cobalt refiner y plant. T he mo del can simulat e the flo od ro ut ing pro cess in the st udy area after the break of aux iliar y dam, estimate the loss value of life, and analy ze the so cial r isk o f life. The results show ed that after the break of aux il2 iary dam, floo d can affect two administr ative v illages( tow ns) , 15 villag es( distr icts) , and 70 462 people. When the dam failure a2 larm time w as less than o r equal to 5 ho ur s, the lo ss v alue of life can reach more t han a hundred and the risk w as unbea rable. The research results can pro vide an important basis for the development o f dam safety manag ement conting ency plans.