基于沂沭泗流域1956 年- 2010 年的水文资料, 运用线性倾向估计、Mann2Kendall 检验、累计距平和小波分析 方法对沂沭泗流域年降水、年地表水资源量的演变趋势、变化过程和趋势及周期性进行了分析。结果表明: 沂沭泗 流域近55 a 内年降水、年地表水资源量变化趋势基本一致, 整体上均呈减少趋势但不显著, 预计未来10 多年内仍 会减少; 年降水和年地表水资源量大体经历了丰枯交替5 个变化阶段, 年地表水资源量减少的趋势比年降水量减少 的趋势稍明显; 年降水变化具有4 a、8 a、15 a 和27 a 的主周期, 年地表水资源量变化具有4 a、14 a 和27 a 的主周 期。趋势表明, 未来10 多年内沂沭泗流域年降水、年地表水资源量仍会减少

Based on the hy dr olog ical data in the Yi2Shu2Si Basin fr om 1956 t o 2010, the linear r egr essio n, Mann2Kendall test, cu2 mulat ive depar ture method, and w avelet analy sis w ere applied to ana lyze t he var iatio n tr end and periodicity of annual precipitat i2 o n and surface w ater r eso ur ces. The r esults showed that the annual pr ecipitatio n and surface w ater resources have the similar variatio n tr end w ith an ov erall insignificant decr easing t rend, and decr ease co nt inuo usly in the future; the annual precipitatio n and sur face w ater r eso urces have ex per ienced fo ur per io ds with w et and dr y ones in tur n, and the decreasing tendency of annual surf ace w ater r eso urces is higher than that of annual pr ecipitatio n; and annual precipit at ion has main cycles o f 4 year s, 8 y ears, 15 years, and 27 year s, and annua l surface water r eso ur ces have main cycles of 4 years, 14 year s, and 27 y ears. T he trend analy sis show ed that annual precipitation and sur face w ater resources co nt inue to decrease in the nex t decade in t he Yi2Shu2Si Basin.

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目( 201301001) ; 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室2013 年自主选题课题( 2013ZY02; 2013QN02) ; 河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目( 2011A570008) ; 河南省高校青年骨干教师资助计划项目; 华北水利水电大学 高层次人才科研启动资助项目