为了对龙门山断裂影响区域的泥石流次生灾害进行危险性评价研究, 应用灰色关联度方法分析了影响区内 45 条泥石流沟一次泥石流最大冲出量、流域面积、流域相对高差、植被覆盖率、松散物质储量、纵比降和24 h 最大降 雨量7 个影响因子权重, 应用此权重替代传统灰色关联分析中的均值权重, 建立了泥石流危险性评价模型。模型评 价结果表明, 松散物质储量和流域面积在影响因子中所占权重较大, 泥石流危险性评价结果与参考资料评价结果基 本一致, 因此改进的灰色关联度评价法可为震区泥石流的防治提供有力支持。

The r isk ev aluation of the seco ndary debris flow disaster caused by t he earthquake in t he Longmenshan fault area w as co nducted in this paper. T he g rey cor relatio n method w as used to analyze the weights of sev en impact factor s, including the maximum o utput of debr is flow , w atershed ar ea, elevat ion difference, vegetat ion co verag e, loo se material reserv es, channel g radi2 ent r at io, and max imum precipitatio n in 24 hours. T he w eig hts wer e used t o r eplace the av erage w eig hts in the traditio na l g rey co rr elation met ho d and build the r isk evaluation model of debris flow . The r esults show ed that the w eig hts of water shed ar ea and lo ose materia l reser ves are g reater than those of ot her fact ors. The evaluatio n results w ere in line w ith the actual situatio n which indicat es the impro ved gr ey cor relation method can pro vide firm suppo rt fo r the preventio n design of debris flow .

国家自然科学基金项目( 41301015) ; 国土资源公益性行业科研专项项目( 201011003) ; 河北省科技支撑项目( 11237174)