基于江苏沿海1957 年- 2013 年逐月降水量序列资料, 采用Mann2Kendall 法、滑动t2检验、Mor let 小波法分析 了江苏沿海代表时段降水量变化趋势、突变点和周期特征。结果表明, 近57 年江苏沿海年、汛期、枯季降水量均呈 不显著减少趋势, 区域上则呈现北部减少、南部增加趋势; 年、汛期、枯季降水量均未发生显著突变; 各代表时段降水 量变化具有13 年左右的主周期, 区域上震荡周期一致性较好; 未来几年, 年、汛期、枯季降水将有所增加。

Study o f t he evo lution rule of precipitatio n along the coastal ar ea o f Jiangsu Pro vince is o f g reat sig nificance for the de2 v elo pment and constructio n of its coastal area as w ell as the allo cation and management o f w ater r eso ur ces. Based on the month2 ly precipit at ion dat a ( 195722013) along the co ast al area of Jiangsu Pro vince, the v ariation trend, mutation points, and periodicity of precipitation in the representative per iods w ere analy zed using the Mann2Kendall test, sliding t test, and M or let wav elet anal2 y sis metho d. The results show ed that t he annual precipitatio n and precipitation in the flood and dr y seasons decrease sig nificant2 ly in r ecent 57 year s; precipitation decreases in the no rth w hile increases in the south; pr ecipitation has no abr upt chang e in the representat ive perio ds; pr ecipitatio n v ariat ion has a primary per iodicity of 13 year s, and the reg ional v ariat ion per io dicity is con2 sistent; and pr ecipitatio n in the r epr esentativ e per iods will incr ease in the future.

国家/ 十二五0 科技支撑计划课题( 2012BAB03B03) ; 国家自然科学基金项目( 51179044)