[关键词]
[摘要]
近年来, 水资源短缺逐渐成为制约经济社会可持续发展的主要因素, 同时经济发展、人口增加、城镇化进程加 快等因素对水资源需求也形成了新的挑战。根据江苏省太湖流域2001 年- 2011 年用水量与社会经济、科学技术、 水资源禀赋等方面资料, 应用加权灰色绝对关联度方法定量分析了用水总量、农业用水量、工业用水量以及生活用 水量不同驱动因素的影响程度, 结果表明: 工业用水量变化的驱动因素中的/ 工业增加值占GDP 比例0 对用水总量 影响最大, 生活用水量变化驱动因素中的城镇化率次之, 而农业用水量变化驱动因素中的有效灌溉面积的影响相对 较小。据此, 分别从工业用水、生活用水、农业用水三方面提出了控制用水量的措施, 为实现区域水资源与经济社会 的协调可持续发展提供依据。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In recent years, water resources sho rtag e has become the main factor r estricting the sustainable develo pment of eco no2 my and society . Meanwhile, the factor s such as economic dev elopment , population g row th, and acceler ated ur banizatio n pr ocess hav e formed the new challeng e fo r the water resources demand. Based on the w ater use data in the T aihu Lake Basin fr om 2001 to 2011 and o ther informat ion such as so cial economy , science and t echnolog y, and w ater resources endow ment, the weighted gr ey abso lute cor relat ion deg ree method was used to quantit atively analy ze the different dr iving factor s fo r the total water use, agr icultural w ater use, industr ial w ater use, and domestic w ater use. The r esults show ed that the industr ial added v alue account2 ing for GDP, one driv ing facto r of t he indust rial w ater use, has the mo st sig nificant effects on the tot al w ater use; fo llowed by the ur banizatio n rate, one driving factor o f the domestic water use; and the effective ir rigatio n area, one driving factor o f the ag r i2 cultura l w ater use, has the least sig nif icant effects. On the basis, the contr olling w ater use measures wer e pro po sed from the as2 pects of industrial water use, domestic wat er use, and ag ricultural w ater use, which can prov ide the reference fo r the co ordinated and sustainable develo pment of w ater resources and social eco nomy.
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[基金项目]
国家社科基金重大项目( 12& ZD214) ; 国家社科基金项目( 12CGL068) ; 江苏省水利厅科技计划项目( 201202; 2011529012)