利用粗糙集约简冗余指标, 将约简后的指标作为BP 神经网络的输入, 进而进行区域水资源承载力动态变化 分析。以厦门市为例, 在分析水资源现状及其影响因素的基础上, 从水资源系统、经济系统、生态系统和社会系统四 个方面, 构建厦门市水资源承载力评价指标体系, 评价厦门市2000 年- 2012 年的水资源承载力状态。结果表明: 2000 年- 2004 年水资源承载力大多为/ 弱不可承载0 , 2005 年- 2010 年为/ 弱承载0 , 即社会经济活动和水资源处于 非协调状态; 2011 年- 2012 年厦门市水资源承载能力得到了较大改善, 达到/ 可承载0 状态。

Evaluat ion of water resources car ry ing capacity is the fo undation of reg ional ecolog ical env ir onment const ruct ion and is import ant fo r determining the dir ect ion of socio2economic dev elo pment. In the paper , r edundant indicato rs w ere scr eened by the roug h set theor y, and then the reduced index system w as serv ed as input to the BP neur al netwo rk to evaluate the dy namic change o f ca rr ying capacity of water resources in Xiamen Cit y. Based on t he investig atio n of wat er resources and r elated influen2 cing facto rs, the evaluat ion index sy st em o f w ater reso ur ces carr ying capacity w as constructed fr om four aspects including w ater resources system, eco nomic system, eco lo gical sy stem, and so cial system, and the dynamic change of water r eso ur ces carr ying ca2 pacity in Xiamen City from 2000 to 2012 w as evaluated. The results showed that the water resources car rying capacity in Xiamen City was weak and unsustainable fr om 2000 to 2004; was weakly sustainable from 2005 to 2010, indicating incompatible status between socio2 economic activity and water resources; and was improved from 2011 to 2012 to reach the sustainable status.

福建省科技厅重点项目( 2013N0013)