在对水资源系统进行模拟分析的基础上, 结合江苏省南水北调受水区水文水资源、 水利工程等特点, 构建流域 降雨径流模型、 水动力学模型、 水量调配模型以及水工程调度模型等子模型, 对受水区水资源量、 供需水量等进行研 究。基于所建模型提出水利工程调度方案, 对研究区水资源进行合理配置。分别模拟计算分析研究区内农业、 工 业、 生活、 生态和船闸用水户在现状与规划工情下不同水平年的供水、 需水、 缺水情况, 制定水资源配置方案。通过 现状与规划方案对比可知, 南水北调一期工程建成后供水能力提高, 缺水量显著降低。95%、 75%和 50%保证率 下, 缺水率分别降低 10. 3%、 8. 0%和 5. 2%。研究成果为南水北调东线水利工程调度提供科学依据, 对跨流域调水 工程的水资源配置与调度具有一定参考意义。

On the basis of water resources system analysis and characteristics of hydrology and water conservancy projects, the precipitation and runoff model, hydrodynamic model, water quantity allocation model, and water project scheduling model were constructed to investigate the water resources quantity and water supply and demand in the river basin. Water conservancy pro2 ject scheduling scheme was proposed based on the constructed models and applied to perform reasonable allocation of water re 2 sources in the study area. T he water supply, water demand, and water deficit in agriculture, industry, life, ecology, and lock under the current and planning engineering conditions were simulated, and the corresponding allocation schemes of water resources were established. T hrough the comparison between the current and planning conditions, water supply capacity can increase while water deficit can decrease after the implementation of the first stage of the South2to 2North Water Transfer Project. Under the assurance rates of 95%, 75%, and 50%, annual water deficit rate decreases by 10. 3%, 8. 0%, and 5. 2%, respectively. T he re 2 search can provide scientific reference for the water conservancy project scheduling in the Eastern Route of the South2to 2North Water T ransfer Project, and is of significance for the water resources allocation and scheduling of the inter2basin water conser2 vancy project.

国家科技支撑计划项目( 2013BAB05B0123) ; 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目/ 基于数据融合的极端气候条件下水资源模 拟与优化配置研究0( 41401021) ; 江苏省水利科技项目/ 江苏省南水北调受水区水量调配与考核关键技术研究0( 2014016)