随着我国城市化进程的加快, 财富与信息等在城市集聚的同时, 城市型水灾害的发生频数在增加, 灾害的损失 也日益增加, 可以说城市型水灾害的发生在于人类社会系统与自然生态系统的相互作用, 是城市各个因素综合作用 的结果。通过采用百分位法和R/ S 分析法等分析了济南市城市型水灾害降水、地形、水文特征, 得到济南市区降水 极端事件及暴雨次数与城市化率趋势一致, 而且水灾害出现的时间与暴雨出现次数最多的时间段相吻合, 同时济南 市区未来降水变化趋势延续过去降水量整体变化趋势的可能性较大; 加之南部山区和城市水系在人类土地利用方 式和自然生态相互影响下脆弱的城市孕灾环境和承灾体共同作用导致济南市城市型水灾害产生。并针对此结合国 外治水防水经验提出五项对策建议。通过本文的研究可以更加深入地的认识城市型水灾害的形成机制, 并在此基 础上为更好地避免或防御城市型水灾害的发生提供理论支撑。

With the r apid ur banizatio n in China, w ealt h and informat ion ar e g athering in the cities, which also leads to the increas2 ing of urban water disaster s and lo ss of disasters. The occur rence o f urban w ater disasters is caused by the inter act ion betw een human so cial sy st em and natura l ecosystems, and is the result of the combined effects o f v arious factor s. In this paper, the char2 acter istics of precipitat ion, t opog raphy , and hydrolog y in ur ban w ater disasters of Jinan City wer e analyzed using t he percentile met ho d and R/ S analysis metho d. The r esults show ed that the number of ex treme pr ecipitation ev ents and the frequency o f r ain2 sto rm ar e co nsistent with the ur banizatio n tr end, the t ime w hen urban w ater disaster s occur is co nsistent w ith the period o f time when rainstorm appears mo st ly, and the futur e trend o f pr ecipitatio n has the possibility of a continuation of the over all trend of pr ecipitatio n in the past years. The frag ile environment o f develo ping hazards caused by the inter act ions between human land use patter ns and natural ecosystems in the souther n mount ains and urban w ater sy stems combined w ith fr ag ile hazard2bear ing bo dies lead to ur ban w ater disasters. Meanw hile, five sugg estions w ere pr oposed acco rding to t he floo d contro l and preventio n ex perience in other countries. The r esear ch can pr ov ide a better understanding o f the fo rmat ion mechanism of urban wat er disas2 ter s, w hich can then offer theoret ical suppor t for the pr ev ent ion of the occurr ence of urban water disaster s.

国家自然科学基金面上项目( 41371537) ; 山东省科技计划项目( 2013GSF11706)