为解决城市水资源供需矛盾, 提高城市水资源的可持续承载能力和实现社会经济的可持续发展, 利用系统动 力学方法, 建立了佳木斯市水资源承载力动态仿真模型, 并结合区域资源利用和社会经济发展特点, 设计了现状延 续、治污开源、限采节流和综合协调4 种提高水资源承载能力方案。方案仿真结果显示: 现状延续、治污开源和限采 节流三种方案在仿真年限内( 2012 年- 2030 年) 未实现水资源供需平衡, 水资源短缺问题仍将束缚佳木斯市工农业 生产和社会经济发展; 综合协调方案不仅在2015 年保证了水资源供需动态平衡, 而且实现了社会经济的快速发展, 是提高佳木斯市水资源承载能力的最佳方案。

In o rder to resolve the contradictio n bet ween urban w ater resources supply and demand, to enhance t he sustainable car2 r ying capacity o f ur ban w ater r eso urces, and to realize t he sustainable dev elopment of social economy, the system dynamics met ho d w as applied to build a dynamic simulatio n model of w ater resources car ry ing capacit y in Jiamusi City. Based on t he char2 acter istics of reg ional r eso ur ces utilizat ion and so cioeconomic develo pment, fo ur schemes w ere desig ned to enhance the water re2 sour ces carr ying capacit y, including current situation co nt inuation scheme, po llution co nt rol and incr easing income scheme, lim it2 ing ex ploitat ion and decreasing expendit ur e scheme, and compr ehensiv e coo rdination scheme. The simulatio n r esult s showed t hat the balance betw een w ater resources supply and demand is not r ea lized under t he fo rmer thr ee schemes fr om 2012 to 2030, and water resources sho rtag e still r est ricts the industr ial and ag ricult ur al pro ductio n and socioeco nomic dev elo pment of Jiamusi City. Howev er, t he balance betw een wat er resources supply and demand in 2015 and rapidly so cioeconomic dev elopment ar e real2 ized under the comprehensiv e co ordinatio n scheme. Thus, the comprehensiv e co or dination scheme is t he best scheme t o enhance the w ater r esources car ry ing capacity o f Jiamusi City.

黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目资助( 面上) ( 12531009)