基于1951 年- 2009 年淮河流域44 个气象站逐日降水资料, 运用小波分析、Mann2Kendall 突变检验法、克里 金插值等方法对研究区暴雨集中度(PCD) 、集中期(P CP ) 、暴雨量及降水总量进行时空变化特征分析。研究表明: 淮河流域近60 年来暴雨PCD 和PCP 增减幅度不明显, 但暴雨量和降水总量呈明显的增长趋势, 增长速度分别为 21 64 mm/ 10 a 和151 17 mm/ 10 a; 变化周期上, 暴雨集中度( PCD) 主要呈现出5 a 和10 a 左右的震荡, 暴雨集中期 ( PCP) 呈现出明显的5 a 和15 a 左右的周期震荡, 暴雨量和降水总量呈现出6~ 10 a 的变化周期; 暴雨集中度 ( PCD) 、集中期( PCP) 、降水总量和暴雨量都存在明显的突变年份; 暴雨集中度空间分布上具有明显的不均衡性, 基本从西向东, 从南向北集中度呈增大趋势, 年降水量较多的区域, 降水集中度相对偏高, 同样地年暴雨量较大的区 域降水暴雨集中度相对偏高; 暴雨集中期主要集中在7 月中下旬, 并且总体上在年内呈现从西北向东南暴雨集中期 逐步推后; 暴雨量与暴雨频次的相关系数达01 96, 即两者具有类似的时空变化特征。

Based on the daily precipitation data at 44 stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1951 to 2009, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variation patterns of Precipitation Concentratio n Degree ( PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Per iod ( PCP) of rainstorm, heavy rainfall, and total precipitation in the study area using the methods such as wavelet analysis, Mann2Kendall mutation test, , and krig ing interpolation. The results showed that ( 1) the increasing trend of the rainstorm PCD and PCP is insignificant, but the amount of rainsto rm and total precipitation show a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 21 64 mm/ 10 a and 151 17 mm/ 10 a, respectively; ( 2) the periodicity of the PCD is appro ximately 5 years and 10 years, the periodicity of PCP is appro ximately 5 years and 15 years, and the periodicity of rainstorm and to tal precipitation is appr ox imately 6 to 10 y ears in r ecent 60 y ears; ( 3) there are obvious muta2 tion year s fo r the PCD, PCP, r ainstorm, and total precipitation; ( 4) t he spatial distr ibutio n of rainstorm PCD is uneven in the riv er basin with t he increasing trend fr om w est to east and from south to nor th, and the P CD is hig her in t he area w ith heav ier rainfall and hig her to tal precipitat ion; ( 5) rainstorm PCP o ccur s mo st ly in the middle t o late July , and it is pushed back from no rtheast to nort hw est w ithin a year ; and ( 6) the cor relat ion co efficient betw een the rainstorm amount and r ainst orm fr equency is up to 01 96, so they have similar ly spatia l and tempor al v ariat ions in the H uaihe River Basin.

安徽高校人文社科重点研究基地项目( SK2015A176) ; 滁州学院科技创新团队支持计划项目( CXTD201105) ; 安徽省地理信息集 成应用协同创新研究中心项目资助。