考虑到不确定条件下漳卫南灌区农业水资源管理的复杂性，为了解决当灌区水资源用户供水目标不能满足需求时的水资源优化配置问题，结合LFP模型与TSP模型的优点，开发了一种分式两阶段随机规划模型（FTSP）。选择漳卫南灌区最大控制性工程岳城水库的两个大型供水灌区作为验证实例，模型应用结果表明，不同决策情景所对应的经济效益和缺水风险不同，最优决策实现了经济效益和缺水风险之间的平衡；不同径流水平下，各用户的正常灌溉面积会发生相应变化，高径流水平时所有用户均能得到正常灌溉。

The study developed a linear fractional two stage programming (FTSP) model for agricultural water management and programming in Zhangweinan River Irrigation Area, China. The developed model incorporated the approaches of two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and linear fractional programming (LFP) within a general optimization framework, and these uncertainties expressed as both fractional and probability distributions can be addressed. Moreover, the model can reflect tradeoffs between conflicting economic benefits and the associated penalties attributed to the violation of irrigation targets. The results demonstrated that different pre-regulating irrigation target policies lead to different system benefit and target-violation risk, and our optimized scenario balanced the system benefit and irrigation target violating risk; water allocation rate of the two channels are different under different scenarios, and all the fifteen subareas received allocated water flow under high inflow level.

国家杰出青年科学基金（51225904）；国家自然科学基金（51190095）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2014XS68）；