为了解大连某半岛内石化事故对区域地下水环境的污染程度，选取对居民区饮用水源有影响的区域建立污染预测模型，分析了事故情景下石油类污染物的空间和时间变化及其对地下水环境和邻近海域造成的影响。结果表明，泄露事故对地下水的污染范围大、时间长，造成的污染严重；场地污染物在地下水含水层中迁移扩散35年后移出场地进入海域，对海洋生态环境产生危害。研究结果可为该地区水环境保护提供依据。

Focusing on a certain peninsula in Dalian where petrochemical accidents occur frequently, this research paper illustrates its current regional water environment contamination through the assessment of its groundwater’s quality. Additionally, with establishment of contamination prediction model applied to the area where the water resources that residents use have been polluted, this research predicts temporal and spatial change of petroleum pollutants and its effect on groundwater environment and adjacent sea area. The research results indicate that the polluted groundwater in consequence of the accidents of oil leakage have following features: the polluted area is comparatively large; the duration of pollution is long; the situation of pollution is serious. The pollutants in that site will remove to the sea area in 35 years according to the simulation results, which endangers the marine ecological environment. Above all, the results of this research provide bases for water environment conservation of this area.

国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”项目（2010CB428805）