[关键词]
[摘要]
水安全事关群众切身利益,牵系国家可持续发展。基于水安全的内涵,提出了水安全综合评价模型,模型中构建了包含水健康安全、水发展安全和水保障安全3个准则层在内的4层次48个指标的水安全评价指标体系,使用熵权法确定各个指标的权重并给出了评价公式。最后利用2000年-2014年中国的相关数据,对中国2000年-2014年间的水安全发展做出了评价,结果表明研究期间水健康安全基本上呈波动上升趋势,水发展安全呈平缓上升趋势,水保障安全则以较快的速度得到了改善,但仍未达到最优的水安全标准,水安全建设任务亟需继续大力推进。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Water security is related to the vital interests of the masses, and has great influences on country’s sustainable development. A water security comprehensive evaluation model was constructed in this paper. This model established an evaluation index system of water security, which included 4 levels, employed 3 criteria levels (water health security, water development security and water guarantee security) and had 48 indicators. With the entropy weight method, the weight of each index was determined. And the formula for water security index was also given in the model. Furthermore, using the macroscopical data from 2000 to 2014, this paper applied the water security evaluation model to assess the water security situation of China. The results showed that during the study period, water health security showed a fluctuant increasing trend, water development security presented a slowly rising trend and water guarantee security was improved at a rapid speed. However, it still did not reach the best standard of water security, and further efforts were still required to improve China’s water security.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家社会科学基金项目(10BJY064);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(09YJA790159)