对鄱阳湖未来入湖径流变化的准确预测可为“后三峡”时期水资源调度决策提供理论依据。本文基于实测资料发现，三峡水库蓄水后，鄱阳湖入湖年径流及各调度期径流均不同程度减少。通过ASD(Automated Statistical Downscaling)统计降尺度方法将GCM(General Circulation Model)输出数据与新安江水文模型耦合，得到未来鄱阳湖流域“五河七口”的入湖径流过程。结果表明未来年径流相比实测变化幅度更小，偏多和偏少交替出现；集水面积较大的赣江、抚河和信江对鄱阳湖径流变化的贡献最大；无论A2还是B2情景下，均是蓄水期变化幅度最大、枯水期最小，且各调度期的入湖径流变化程度比年径流更大。

Accurate prediction of future inflow change into Poyang Lake can provide theoretical basis for the decision-making of water resources allocation during the post-Three Gorges Project period. Based on the analysis of observed discharge data, this paper found that after the impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, the inflows into the Poyang Lake of annual total and four scheduling periods have uniformly reduced in different degrees. Seven future inflow hydrographs of five major rivers of Poyang Lake Basin were obtained through the coupling of GCM (General Circulation Model) output data and Xin-An-Jiang hydrological model with the ASD (Automated Statistical Downscaling) statistical downscaling method. The results showed that compared to the observed change, the future change of annual total inflow into the Poyang Lake would be smaller, still showing alternating variations of positive and negative patterns; those tributaries with larger drainage areas i.e., Gan River, Fu River and Xin River, would make more contribution to the total inflow change; under both A2 and B2 scenarios, the change rates of impoundment period compared would be greater than that of any other scheduling period while that of day period would be smaller, and the change rate of each period would be greater than that of total inflow.

国家自然科学基金项目（51409152，41401018，51509141）；南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金（2013490911）；三峡大学人才科研启动基金（KJ2014B030）